Why Roddick got to the final

I don’t partcularly enjoy watching Andy Roddick play. 

He is not a brilliant shot maker, his backhand looks awkward, he hasn’t got a Murray like touch and his volleys are pretty standard.

These short comings were particularly evident in his match against Jurgen Melzer where the Austrian basically beat himself.

Roddick just pushed the ball back and Melzer, who was always looking to attack, made too many errors.

The way the world number six plays has changed dramatically if you compare his tennis with a couple of years ago. For example the 2007 US Open quarter final loss to Federer was full of energy with the American throwing everything at the Swiss master. He hit massive serves and massive groundstrokes with the emphasis on getting his forehand into play as much as possible.  

The new Roddick,  serves a bit slower, hits with far more caution and simply gets his ground strokes in.

So how did he get to the Wimbledon final I hear you ask?

Because there is no-one better than Roddick at grinding out a long rally on a big point.

Often a tennis match is decided by one or two points and time and time again you will see the American come out on top because mentally he is one of the best players on the tour.

It seems that the appointment of coach Larry Stefaki in December 2008  has worked like a dream as his results have been very impressive since that time.

I think there are a number of players in the top 50 who are better off the ground than Roddick but at the end of the day it’s what is inbetween the ears that counts the most.

While he  doesn’t have the talent of Federer, Nadal or Murray he rarely fails to go deep into a tournament because at crucial times during matches he has the ability to hit groundstrokes all day long until he wins a point.

This is highlighted by the fact he has a 26-6 tie break record for this year. This statistic is so impressive and completely sums up how solid he is.

Obviously I also have to mention his serve. Although he appears to have slowed his first delivery down, it is still effective.

For Wimbledon Roddick had a tournament average of 70 percent first serves in – which is why it took Federer over four hours to break him in the final.

Roddick makes an early exit – Is it that much of a surprise?

Andy Roddick went out in the second round of Wimbledon yesterday which isn’t a big shock in my opinion. His preparation for the tournament wasn’t brilliant as he had only played two competitive matches since a back injury sustained on May 5th ruled him out of Hamburg and the French Open.

As a result he simply wasn’t match tight against a very talented opponent. As I said in my predicition Tipsarevic was going to cause him trouble as the Serb is a better player from the back of the court.

It seems strange when people act like this result was an un-thinkable shock. Tipsarevic has had a string of good results this year after his five setter against Federer in the Australian Open which seemed to make him believe he could be one of the best players in the world.

This year Tipsarevic has beaten Fernando Verdasco, James Blake, Mikahil Youzhny and Paul Henri Matheiu which tells everyone he is some player.

It is fair enough to say Roddick was not at his best today but the Serb took advantage of this and got the job done.

Novak Djokovic’ loss to Marat Safin on the other hand is a bit more of a surprise. Again similar to Roddick’s case, you could say Djokovic wasn’t at his best but Safin didn’t give him a chance to play and get into his stride.

Safin put pressure on the Serb constantly and instead of responding in his typical impressive fashion, Djokovic on this occasion wilted under the barrage of power and precision from the strong Russian. It was like watching a heavy-weight versus a light-weight.

Djokovic couldn’t come up with any answers during the match but he did reveal he was mentally tired after the match. Nadal has won three tournaments in a row and is currently on a 19 match winning streak. Shouldn’t he be playing a poor match soon then where he does two double faults to lose the match? I’d put my bank on the Spaniard not losing as easily as this during Wimbledon.

I’m afraid Djokovic just didn’t show up for this match and was outclassed by a past master who may just have re-found that winning feeling.

I must add that James Ward, the British Number 8 who blogs for this website won a set off Marat Safin at Queens, something Djokovic could not do!

Roddick finds Dubai form to defeat nemesis

In previous close Roddick – Federer encounters ( e.g US Open 07 first two sets 76(5) 76(4) ) between these two players, the outcome of matches have been influenced by 2 or 3 points which have gone the Swiss master’s way, however this time the crucial points went to Roddick. To illustrate this fact even more the stats read that Roddick won 95 out of 186 points to Federer’s 91. The final score was 76(4) 46 63.

This is only the second time the American has beaten Federer in 21 attempts and Roddick will be pleased to have snapped an 11 match losing streak against him.

 I tipped Federer to win thinking he held a huge mental advantage over Roddick having beaten him so many times however the American served fantastically throughout the match and raised his game having not played at his Dubai winning level this week. He was certainly nervous during the match and always seems that much more pumped up when he plays Federer, which can contribute to his downfall however he was solid here.

 Federer also played very well in the match and I don’t think he was off form as such. He played a poor tie break in the first set and was broken once in the third. But in the first and second set he did not face a break point so this match really could have gone either way.

Federer has lost his the invincibility factor he has had for such a long time and his opponents now have more belief that they can beat him and Federer will realise this, which is possibly effecting his playing style on big points. I read on a forum how someone noticed after comparing videos of the Federer backhand from 06/07 to now, he currently does not hit it with as much force or venom and its is now more of push than a whip. Read the thread here.  

 I don’t think Roddick can win  the title here despite this impressive win. He will have trouble with Davydenko in the semi-final who seems to be very much switched on here in Miami and demolished Tipsarevic 62 61. The winner will either be Berdych or Nadal which is the other semi final match. I may favour Berdych as Nadal has not beaten him on hard courts before but Rafa has been quoted as saying he is playing to his maximum level at the moment. A more detailed prediction will follow later.

In the other quarter final Blake failed to pin down Nadal as he lost in three sets 63 36 16 . I tipped Blake thinking he would use his power and stong returning game to put presure on the Spaniard’s serve and this happend in the first set, however Nadal played near perfect tennis in the second and third set giving Blake problems on virtually every service game and clearly wanted to win this match more than the American. Also Nadal is serving at a level I have not experienced before.

 Other Tipping Results – Quarter Finals

 T Berdych d I Andreev 64 64 – Correct

N Davydenko d J Tipsarevic 62 61 – Wrong

Match Prediction 02/04 Sony Ericsson Open Quarter Finals

Quarter Finals 

Roger Federer SWI (1) – Andy Roddick USA (6)

Roddick has beaten the Swiss master only twice in 19 attempts and one of these wins was in a exhibition match. Had Roddick played Federer in Dubai I would have favoured A-Rod due to his sensational un-breakable form, however he has predictably tailed off now and has not had a smooth ride through this tournament. Federer on the other hand has recovered from his recent dip in form and fitness and seems back to a standard somewhere near his best as he showed against Acasuso. The Swiss master has not won a tournament this season as yet and he looks set for at least a final appearance.

 Predicted Winner :: Federer 

Nikolay Davydenko RUS (4) – Janko Tipsarevic SRB (41)

This will be a close match, probably going the distance and I think the Serbian number 2 could edge it. His five setter against Federer in the Australian Open really gave him the belief that he could be a top player and I think he has displayed his undoubted quality in recent performances. Davydenko has battled through his rounds coming from a set down to win in all three displaying his mental strength and his confidence hitting off both wings. However I think if he gives Tipsarevic any chances the Serbian will take them and not let him back into the match un-like his previous opponents. Davydenko was impressive against Ancic and showed his true quality but he is unpredictable and you never know if he’ll turn up or not. 

 Predicted winner – Tipsarevic

 James Blake USA (9) – Rafael Nadal ESP (2)

Blake lost to Nadal in three sets in their last encounter in Indian Wells and I think he has the quality to get his revenge on the spaniard here providing he is 100 percent. His accurate and powerful shots trouble Nadal who struggles to defend against big hitters. However, as we all know, Nadal never gives up and will fight right up until the last point of a match. His win against Tsonga is an example of this as he won from being 5-3 down in the third set by taking the next four games in a row. Nadal has been untroubled in this tournament but has not faced anyone with the quality of Blake. This match could again go the distance and I’m favouring Blake who will have the home crowd behind him.

 Predicted Winner :: Blake

Tomas Berdych CZE (10) – Igor Andreev RUS (31) 

Berdych has hit form in this tournament and I cannot see him losing to Andreev who I find a little one dimensional sometimes. He relies on his big forehand too much and I think the Czech number one will simply direct traffic to the weaker backhand wing. Berdych will use his strong ground stokes to apply pressure on the Andreev serve, which is quite useful, but does desert him occasionally when needed most. An example of this is when he played Djokovic in Dubai. Berdych has not lost a set this tournament and although this match could be more testing he should come through it.

 Predicted winner :: Berdych

Federer to return to his throne?

I think Roger Federer could be in with a great chance to pick up his first title of the season. The Swiss number one seems to be back on form and has been cruising through the rounds at the Sony Ericsson Open. He looks much sharper in matches now compared with his loss to Murray when he had not played since the Australian Open and wasn’t fit. Providing he beats Roddick, which will not be easy, I cannot see Tipsarevic or Davydenko providing much of a problem on route to the final. In the final I feel he will meet one of my players to watch in the tournament, James Blake or the in-form Tomas Berdych.

I mentioned two other players who I thought could advance a few rounds pre-tournament but unfortunately they did not live up to my expectations. Philipp Kohlschrieber put in a disappointing display against Simone Bolleli, who then showed some quality in the next round against Davydenko taking the first set. Kohlschrieber is capable of more and has not replicated his early season form in which he won Auckland and beat Andy Roddick in an epic five setter in the Australian Open. He is an extremely talented player and I am sure he will return to form soon and start delving deeper into tournaments again.  Fernando Gonzalez did not make the most of his draw losing in two tight sets to Canas so I will be kept waiting for the Chilean to hit the form in which he is virtually an unstoppable force and it just a matter of time before he gets back into the top ten.

My tip Kevin Anderson overcame Novak Djokovic in three sets however it could have been very different as Djokovic went 2-0 up in the third set. But as I thought, the Serbian tired as the match progressed into the latter stages and I think fatigue got the better of him here. Tribute must also be paid to a solid performance from a future star in Anderson. The tip can be seen here. A theory I read on another site of why Djokovic lost is because of a time warning from bouncing the ball too many time when serving. This is a ridiculous suggestion. If Djokovic lost a match every time he recieved a time warning or reacted badly to any other distraction he would not be the number three player in the world.

I also wrote my opinions on the MVN.com tennis diary regarding The Sony Ericsson Open. Here are my comments and also a response from someone…

 I said: “People forget although his (Djokovic’) playing standard and mentality are at levels way above his years, his body is still that of a skinny 20 year old and does not allow him to play at the level he can week after week without enough rest…”

 Response from Patricia Davis: “Mark, do you really think Djoko’s body needs that much rest? I thought 20-year-olds ran forever(!) Fish mentioned after he lost about keeping it going mentally, so maybe that was more of Novak’s problem. This 60plus body needs to believe that 20 year olds have it really good(!)”

I said: “Patricia, yes I do think Djoko’s body needs a fair amount of rest after winning a tournament.

The conditioning of a 20 year old is far different from say a 26 year old who is in physical prime and his muscles and joints are far from the finished article. Playing 6 matches in a week at world class level takes its toll on anyone. Imagine he had a week off before playing that match, it would without a doubt been a standard straight sets day at the office.

‘Well, I tried to recover, but obviously I was a little bit tired from the start. But it was okay, you know.’

Basically Djoko is saying he wasnt fit for the match but played anyway.

As for the time warning, I think it is wrong to suggest he lost the match because of this. This is the number three player in the world we are talking about and he did not get there by being put off by umpires.”

Read the discussion in full…

Here are the other results from my other tips in the round of 64.

D Tursunov d R Gasquet 63 67(2) 76(5) – Correct

F Santoro d I Ljubicic 76(4) 26 63 – Correct

F Lopez d J Del Potro 64 62 - Correct

For a full set of results click here.

Can Djokovic deliver two consecutive titles?

As I predicted Novak Djokovic overcame the on form Mardy Fish 6-2 5-7 6-3 to claim the first Masters Series title of the season, the Pacific Life Open. Now Djokovic has his sights set on the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami and the question is can he win back to back titles? I’m not so sure.

 Andy Roddick and Sam Querrey proved last week that they were not capable of keeping up their fine form in Indian Wells after winning tournaments the week before and with the Serb’s fatigue and injury history it is difficult to fancy him here. When Djokovic was a break up in the third set against Fish his body language and facial expression was not that of somebody who was on the way to a title. He looked tired and was definitely struggling however used his fighting spirit to get through the match.

He also could have lost his serve in the first game of the third set finding himself 0-40 down but bravely fired three aces to pick himself up and carry on his march to the title. Djokovic can never be written off in Miami as his physical condition has certainly improved from last season and he has points to defend as he is the current Miami champion. He has got a nice draw as he could be facing Andreev and Canas in the early rounds, two players he has beaten with ease in the past few weeks. However I think they could prove tougher tests considering how many matches Djokovic has played and fatigue may start to become a factor. 

 Fernando Gonzalez will be looking to win a few rounds in this tournament and should the Chilean overcome Canas in the round of 32 (assuming they both get there) he could play Djokovic and I think a minor upset could be on the cards. Gonzalez hasn’t really hit form this year as yet and I think he could reach at least the semi-finals in this tournament. There are two other players that I think could progress in this tournament and they are Philipp Kohlschrieber and James Blake.  

The full tournament draw can be seen here.

Last weeks winners struggle at Pacific Life Open

As I predicted Andy Roddick and Sam Querrey lost in the early rounds of the Pacific Life Open. Their success last week has surely cost them from progressing here as they have not been able to maintain their high standards. This is a common occurance for players on tour as the further they go in a tournament, the less time they have to rest and prepare for the next.

In other matches Andy Murray survived a scare from Jurgen Melzer coming from a set down to win and my tip for the title Novak Djokovic beat Philipp Kohlschrieber with relative ease, in which I thought would be a more difficult third round for the Serb.

Haas d Roddick 64 64

L Hewitt d Querrey 64 63

A Murray d J Melzer 36 63 63

N Djokovic d P Kohlschrieber 63 62

 A full set of results from the Pacific Life Open can be found here. 

Match Tips 16/03/08 Pacific Life Open

Round of 64 

Andy Roddick USA (6) – Tommy Haas GER (36)

As I have said Roddick surprised me last week with his impressive performances in Dubai. I opposed him in every match and he proved me wrong however I will not be tipping him here. The amount of times a tournament winner goes out first or second round in his next competition is my reason for this. Roddick could be a little physically and mentally tired from all his matches last week and he can not play any better than last week. Tommy Haas seems to have put his 6/3 6/0 loss to David Ferrer in Dubai behind him as he beat battling Frenchman Julien Benneteau in three sets here in the previous round. Haas has the superior groundstrokes when compared with Roddick and I feel if A-Rod misses a few first serves then he could be under pressure from the 29 year old German. This match will be close but I think Haas can edge it if Roddick isn’t playing to the standard he did last week.

 Predicted Winner :: Haas

 Andy Murray GBR (11) – Jurgen Melzer AUS (85)

Melzer is a solid player who had an impressive win over Safin in the previous round but surely Murray will be too much for him here. The British number one played some sensational tennis to beat Federer in Dubai but was de-railed by Russian Davydenko in straight sets. This has given Murray a few days off to re-group and he’ll be fresh coming into this and should win without too many problems.

 Predicted Winner :: Murray

 Lleyton Hewitt AUS (24) – Sam Querrey USA (48)

Querrey is the form player here having won Las Vegas last week but like Roddick he too could be feeling a little tired from his previous matches. The big server showed no sign of fatigue against Luis Horna in the first round but Hewitt is of a different class and he will be looking to get through a couple of rounds in this tournament after a stuttering start to 2008. He won this tournament in 2002 and 2003 and although it may seem his best years are behind him Hewitt still has the ability to turn on the style as he showed against Safin beating him 6/2 6/1 in Las Vegas last week.

Predicted Winner :: Hewitt 

Move over Roddick, Djokovic has my vote for Pacific Life Open title

All the recent talk has been about Andy Roddick and how he hasn’t been broken in 56 games but theres no way this is going to happen again in the Pacific Life Open. His form peaked in Dubai with some surprisingly impressive performances and he is back to being one of the most feared players on the tour. I opposed Roddick in every match in the Dubai Championships and I was very off with my predictions apart from the final where Lopez had the better of him before pressing the self destruct button. The likelihood of Roddick reproducing his Dubai form is in my opinion very low and I do not give him any chance of winning the tournament due to a very dodgy draw with Andy Murray and nemesis Roger Federer in his quarter.

Someone who does a have a very nice looking draw is Novak Djokovic. Yes he lost to Roddick last week, but anyone would have lost to A-Rodd on the form he was in.  A possible tough second round against Philipp Kohlschrieber looms however if he gets through this I cannot see anyone in his quarter challenging him and he should cruise through the rounds. The only other top ten ranked player in his quarter is battler David Ferrer and if they meet in the last 16 you have to think the Serb would not pass up an opportunity to reach the semi finals. Here I think he will face either Richard Gasquet or Jo Wilfried Tsonga which will be tough but I think ‘Djoko’ improved his fitness in the off season and looks far more resillient as a result and this improved quality should take him into the final.

What do you think? Take a look at the tournament draw here.

Good effort Feliciano

My tip Feliciano Lopez put up a good fight before losing 7-6 4-6 2-6 to Andy Roddick in the final of the Dubai Barclays Championship. Lopez played sensationally in the first set winning the tie break 9-7  from being 5-2 down. He was serving ‘off his head’ to quote the Eurosport commentator and rifled down 24 aces. He used classic serve and volley tactics to brilliant effect to finish points off early and put pressure on Roddick’s ground strokes. This can be a risky tactic but Lopez was able to pull off a number of precise volleys. His form was inevitably going to dip and at 4-4 in the second set, Roddick broke the Lopez serve and from that point there was only going to be one winner. Roddick’s serving was dominant with 22 aces and he showed us why he has not been broken in 54 service games.